Characteristics of a Kentucky Derby Winner
Horseracing Betting Lines
01/23/2012 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the longest time, thoroughbreds raced
four, five, even six times in their three-year-old season prior to the
Kentucky Derby. The norm these days is just two or three with the races spaced
out a month at a time.
In fact, the last five Derby winners hit the track just twice in their three-
year-old campaign before the first Saturday in May. In 2007, Street Sense
opened up his season with a nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Mar.
17 Tampa Bay Derby and then finished second in the Blue Grass four weeks
later. The next year, Big Brown picked up back-to-back victories at Gulfstream
Park in March before taking home the roses.
Mine That Bird parlayed a pair of losses at Sunland Park in late February and
March to win the Derby in 2009. Two years ago, Super Saver won on the slop at
Churchill Downs after losing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby in
March and April, respectively. Last year, the lightly raced Animal Kingdom
prevailed off two preps - an entry-level allowance loss on Mar. 3 followed by
a win in the Spiral on Mar. 26.
As one can see, it doesn't really matter if the horses win or not prior to the
Kentucky Derby. The key is to have enough graded earnings before the beginning
of May to guarantee a spot in the Run for the Roses.
This year, a few of the key contenders will have only two three-year-old prep
races, so for those folks who like to wager on trends, keep the names Union
Rags, Sabercat, and maybe Dullahan in mind.
Another key attribute for a Kentucky Derby winner is a victory or a close
second in a 1 1/8-mile race. Animal Kingdom (2011), Big Brown (2008), Barbaro
(2006), Smarty Jones (2004), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001), and Fusaichi
Pegasus (2000) all won going nine-furlongs.
Super Saver (second by a neck in 2010), Street Sense (second by a nose in
2007), and Funny Cide (second by one half-length in 2003) all just missed
winning at 1 1/8-miles prior to the Derby. The only two years since 2000 this
trend has not held true were 2005 and 2009 when Giacomo and Mine That Bird,
respectively, crossed the wire first at 50-1.
Giacomo at least had a pair of nine-furlong attempts finishing third, beaten 1
1/4-lengths as the 8-5 favorite in the Sham, and then running fourth, beaten
by two in the Santa Anita Derby. Mine That Bird was 13-1 when he ran fourth,
beaten 3 1/4-lengths in the Sunland Derby. It is imperative to finish first,
second, third, or fourth, in the final prep race as the last horse to win the
Derby finishing fifth or beyond was Iron Liege some 55 years ago.
The most noticeable trend is the two-year-old jinx as Apollo in 1882 was the
last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a start at two. That means Todd
Pletcher's Spring Hill Farm, who burst on the scene with a dazzling 6 1/4-
length score in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14,
will have a tough time catching up to his contemporaries in the coming months.
THE IMPORTANCE OF A SOLID PEDIGREE
With most of the Kentucky Derby entrants coming to Churchill Downs with fewer
and fewer starts, a horses' pedigree is a vital way of narrowing down the
field to a more manageable number.
That is one reason why two-year-old champion Hansen is way down on my "Dirty
Dozen" list. Despite all the early accomplishments, his breeding does not
suggest success as the distances increase.
Hansen's sire Tapit has produced a ton of solid runners, including Trappe
Shot, Tapizar, and Stardom Bound, but not many have won past nine-furlongs.
His dam side, going back a few generations, lacks any sort of stamina to make
up for his distance-challenged sire line.
Another top runner, Discreet Dancer, has all the talent to be one of this
year's top milers but asking him to go another quarter-mile might be his
undoing.
The jury is out on his sire Discreet Cat as his first crop just turned three
this year. Still, his dam, Pretty Discreet, won the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga
and his sire, Forestry, sent out Shackleford who won last year's Preakness.
Discreet Dancer comes from a top-notch female line. His second dam, Bering
Cruise, is a half-sister to Love Me True, whose son Duke of Marmalade won
multiple long-distance Group 1 races overseas. His third dam, Lassie's Lady,
is a half-sister to Weekend Surprise, who produced A.P. Indy and Summer
Squall.
Nevertheless, Discreet Dancer's dam, West Side Dancer, has produced just one
other foal, the four-year-old sprinter, Travelin Man. The odds are strong that
Discreet Dancer has a better chance of stretching out his speed than his older
half-brother, but winning graded races over a-mile-and-an-eighth is still a
question mark.
To that end, the top pedigrees on the 2012 Kentucky Derby trail belong to Sky
Kingdom, Alpha, Russian Greek, Algorithms, and Casual Trick.
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Why Sports Betting is so much fun?
Betting Sports
The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game’s outcome (also called betting the side). College Football Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up. ( See our article detailing how and why point spreads are made)
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR. ( More details on playing the Money Line)
Points (or Runs) Scored
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under . So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.
Future Bets
Sports gambling doesn’t end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year’s Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl odds might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Proposition Bets (or Prop Bets)
Proposition bets , also known as prop bets, focus upon the more exotic aspects of a game and are generally reserved for events that are widely televised. Prop bets are extremely popular when it comes to wagering on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas. The Imperial Palace Casino’s sportsbook is well-known for the enormous number of prop bets offered. For example, you can bet on:
- What team will win the coin toss
- What player will score the game’s first touchdown
- What will be the exact margin of victory
Types of Bets
Straight Bet
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.
A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay bet is much better odds than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher.
Standard payoffs on a two-team parlay are 13/5; while a three-teamer pays 6/1; and a four-teamer 10/1.
Parlay cards are also fairly common in sportsbooks and popular with bettors, as they are released early in the week with set odds that do not change in return for a slightly lower payoff.
Round Robin Betting
Adventurous bettors who enjoy betting parlays sometimes put together a series of parlays called a Round Robin . A three-team Round Robin consists of one three-team parlay and three two-team parlays. For example, Joe likes teams A,B,C – with a Round Robin he has a three-teamer with ABC, and two-teamers with AB, AC, and BC.
Similar to a parlay, a teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers, but is different in that the point spread is adjusted to your advantage on each individual wager. In exchange for the points, you get less of a return on your bet compared to a parlay. For example, a 6-point teaser would move the line on a 7-point favorite from -7 to -1, meaning the team would have to cover 6 less points. Each of the individual wagers must win or the bet is a loss.
These are the main types of sports bets available today. But as sports betting continues to grow, sportsbooks will continue to develop new and creative ways to bet. We’ll continue to track these changes to the sports gambling landscape, so check back often and we’ll tell you all about it!
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Big East Conference odds
Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence
Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.
Work left to do:
Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.
Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.
DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...
West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.
Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.
For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com
For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com
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